How Democrat Adam Gray won his race, the last to be called for the U.S. House

by Rachel Livinal December 5, 2024

Just days after unseating Republican incumbent Congressman John Duarte, Merced Democrat Adam Gray says he’s ready for the big leagues of politics in Washington, D.C.

Gray, 47 and a former state Assembly member, says he’ll be working on his fastball, curveball, and aiming to “see if I can help the Democrats turn that Congressional baseball game around.”

Gray told KVPR that Duarte called him Tuesday night to congratulate him, saying he was “committed to working together with me to make sure that constituents get the service they deserve here in the 13th Congressional District.”

“There’s a lot of great work that can happen in Washington to improve healthcare, improve our economy, protect our water, and I look forward to getting started day one on all of those things,” Gray said. “Just making sure that the constituents here in the Central Valley and 13th Congressional District have great representation and representation that’s focused on them, not the political parties.”

Even with a small margin, Gray said winning didn’t come as a surprise because he’s had voters from all parties who openly supported and voted for him. But he believes that voters ultimately voted for bipartisanship and independence. He acknowledged that both he and Duarte ran on those principles during their campaigns. He plans to follow through on both of those points during his time in office. 

Duarte did not respond to KVPR’s requests for an interview, but he spoke to the Turlock Journal Tuesday night.

“I’m a citizen legislator, and I didn’t plan on being in Congress forever,” Duarte said. “But whenever I think I can make a difference, I’ll consider public service in different forms, including running for Congress again.”

Tom Holyoke, a political science professor from Fresno State, said he wouldn’t be surprised if this isn’t the last he heard of Duarte. 

He thinks both Gray and Duarte were the best candidates for their prospective parties. He emphasized that the result of this race, however, spells a big loss for Republicans in the House. They now only hold a five-seat majority. 

“The outcome of this race is of national significance,” Holyoke said. Republicans, he added, are “going to really have a hard time getting any kind of legislation through the House of Representatives. This is not good for any kind of legislative plan that Donald Trump wants to put through Congress.”

What experts say won Gray the race

High-level Republicans like Merced County District Attorney Nicole Silveira and Sheriff Verne Warnke endorsed Gray during his second run, proving Valley residents lean toward political moderacy when voting. 

The race was called for Gray when he was ahead by a mere 187 votes. The 13th Congressional District was the last to be called for the House of Representatives. The race was a repeat of two years ago, when a winner also wasn’t called until the very last votes were counted. Duarte ultimately beat Gray in 2022 by 564 votes. 

Expectations were high this time around, especially when it came to voter turnout. Final numbers show only 66.2% of Merced County voters returned ballots. That includes a surge of last minute voters in some parts of the county on Election Day.

In comparison, a whopping 78.7% of registered Merced County voters returned ballots in 2020 –  higher than the 73.2% who voted in 2016 and a substantial boost from the 64.09% who voted in 2012.

Presidential elections generally have the highest level of voter turnout. In elections where the presidential race is not at stake, turnout can be as dismal as 26% – such as the outcome of June 2022 election in Merced County.

Holyoke, the political science professor, said many registered voters stayed home or didn’t return ballots in 2024. As a result, he said the candidates needed to build a strong ground game – which paid off. 

“Duarte and Gray were putting a lot of resources into ground organization, but Gray’s were particularly good,” Holyoke said. “I think at the end of the day, that made the difference. He got his people out to the polls.” 

Volunteers for both candidates also focused on helping cure ballots, which is a process where voters are asked to submit correct signatures in order to have their ballots processed. That added new votes for the candidates columns.  

Holyoke told KVPR that Gray trended upward as more votes were processed, even when he was down in the polls. Vote results show Duarte led throughout most of the race, starting the day after Election Day with a 3,189 vote lead. But, that lead slowly shrunk as more results came in. Gray took the reins on Nov. 26, and stayed there until the race was called. 

Holyoke said the results were what is typically seen in recent elections, as most mail-in and late voters tend to lean Democrat. Plus, despite the Valley largely favoring President-elect Donald Trump for president, Valley voters still tend to stick to party lines, making Gray’s win less surprising than elsewhere in the state. 

Adam Gray declares victory over John Duarte in Congressional District 13 race

by Brianna Vaccari December 3, 2024

With fewer than 200 votes between the candidates in Congressional District 13, Democrat Adam Gray declared victory Tuesday evening over Republican incumbent John Duarte.

Per Tuesday’s preliminary tallies, Gray picked up 22 votes in Fresno County, growing his lead ahead of Duarte to 187 votes.

The five counties that fall within the district – Fresno, Madera, Merced, Stanislaus and San Joaquin –have until Dec. 5 to certify their elections. California must certify its election by Dec. 13.

The race is a repeat from 2022, when Duarte beat Gray by 564 votes, making it the second closest race in the country. 

“I’m honored to become the Congressman-elect for California’s 13th Congressional District,” Gray said in a statement, minutes after Fresno’s new vote totals were posted online.

 “The final results confirm this district is ready for independent and accountable leadership that always puts the Valley’s people ahead of partisan politics,” Gray said.

The Merced FOCUS left two phone messages with the Duarte campaign seeking comment.

Gray’s apparent victory underscores the fact that CA-13 remains a purple district.

While Trump flipped nearly all of the district’s San Joaquin Valley counties from blue to red (with Madera being the exception), those same counties apparently voted differently for their Presidential and Congressional candidates.

The candidates themselves also straddle both sides of the political spectrum. During the Debate at the State in Modesto days before the election, Duarte declared himself pro-choice on abortion and said he supports same-sex marriage. Meanwhile, Gray earned endorsements from Merced County’s conservative sheriff and district attorney.

In his victory statement, Gray again said he’s committed to working across the aisle.

“In Washington, I’ll work everyday to deliver the resources that the Valley needs: clean water, better educational opportunities, stronger infrastructure, and more good-paying jobs. And you can count on me to build bipartisan relationships to accomplish these goals.” 

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee took partial credit for flipping the seat in a statement Tuesday night.

“The DCCC is proud to have played a role in flipping this seat, and we’re excited to welcome Adam to Congress to fight the good fight for his constituents and their needs,” DCCC Chair Suzan DelBene said in a statement. She also called Gray “a no-nonsense Valley problem solver who’s ready to bring his track record of service and bipartisanship to the halls of Congress.”

Early in ballot tabulation, Duarte took a commanding lead in Fresno and Madera among voters who returned their ballots prior to Election Day. Vote totals show Gray gained traction in Merced, San Joaquin and Stanislaus as same-day ballots were counted.

It’s possible that first-time voters who showed up at Merced County polls late on Election Day gave Gray the last-minute push he needed. Merced’s Registrar of Voters Melvin Levey said vote centers across the county saw high in-person turnout, and this election saw the county’s second-highest turnout behind the 2020 Presidential Election.

As ballot tabulation came down to the wire, both campaigns focused on ballot curing during the weekend after Thanksgiving. Ballot curing is a process in which voters’ signatures must either be confirmed or collected.

In Merced County, over 1,000 ballots were cured, with the last 378 added to vote totals Monday. About 700 ballots were never cured, Levey said.