Most Valley voters skipped the primary election. Experts say why – and what it means for November

By VICTOR A. PATTON l March 16, 2024

victor@cvlocaljournalism.org

If you know a registered voter in Merced County, chances are that person didn’t bother submitting a ballot for the March 5 primary.

While that may sound discouraging, experts say there’s a good chance it won’t have much bearing on what turnout looks like in November. 

According to the Merced County Registrar of Voters, as of  5 p.m. Friday data show about 28.39% of the county’s 128,287 registered voters participated in the primary.

The last time the numbers were that low for a presidential primary was 2012, when 27.02% of Merced County voters participated, according to numbers from the Secretary of State.

Voter turnout was similarly low in other nearby Valley counties, although Merced County was at the bottom of the heap.

As of March 5 turnout for other San Joaquin Valley counties included: Fresno County (29.72%), Stanislaus County (30.25%), Madera County (37.10%) and San Joaquin County (33.8%).  

The statewide average for turnout wasn’t much better than the Valley, with 33.6% of registered California voters casting ballots in the 2024 primary election. 

The voter turnout numbers in Merced County were higher for the March 2020 and June 2016 presidential primary elections – 43.23% and 42.11% respectively.

Why did so few voters turn out?

Nate Monroe, political science professor at UC Merced, said voters broadly fit into three categories: 1). Those who vote out of a sense of duty in every election; 2). Those who vote during an election to express a certain opinion or 3). Those who vote with the belief their participation may be pivotal to deciding an election outcome. 

Monroe said many of the 28.9% of voters who did turn out for the March 5 primary probably fit into the first category. For the other two categories, there may not have been much motivation to vote in the primary. 

Case in point, regardless of how any Californian voted in the presidential primary, President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump had already solidified their respective Democratic and Republican nominations to run for a November rematch.

There were other races on the primary ballot that, regardless of who received a higher margin of votes in March, still won’t be decided until November. 

For example, Republican John Duarte and Democrat Adam Gray were listed on the primary ballot in the battle for California’s 13th Congressional District seat. But even before a single primary vote was cast, Duarte and Gray were already set for a November runoff. 

“I think one side of the story is that the pieces that have to be in play to get moderate or high voter turnout, they just aren’t there in a primary election where you don’t have real serious competition for the presidential nomination,” Monroe said.

Monroe also explained that most campaigns, particularly in Congressional races, are saving the bulk of their resources for the November general election – where spending money can make a big difference in close races. 

Some of the most important national races in November for control of the House of Representatives are in California’s San Joaquin Valley. 

With the level of spending focused on those races by campaigns, political action committees and other powerful interests, Monroe won’t be surprised if that results in higher turnout at Valley ballot boxes in November. 

“The Congressional races are going to draw an enormous amount of money, focus, energy, media attention, human capital and hours trying to bring voters to the polls on each side (in November) to get their candidates across the finish line,” Monroe said. 

“And so I think where you get low turnout in (the primary) election, you’re going to very likely see equally surprising high numbers of turnout in the general election, not just because voters are going to care a lot more and see their role as more important, but also because campaigns have saved a lot of money.” 

Melvin Levey, Merced County registrar of voters, said while it’s difficult to pinpoint any particular reason for the low primary turnout, a smaller ballot with fewer issues compared to prior years may have played a role. “For a lot of reasons here, voters just didn’t get excited statewide about some of the things that were on the ballot,” he said. 

Levey, like Monroe, said the amount of campaigning happening at a given time plays a big role in voter turnout. And while he doesn’t have a crystal ball, Levey said he too expects many more voters to turn out in November. 

During the 2020 general election, voter turnout in Merced County was 78.72%. Levey said that was near or at the all-time record.

In addition to the presidential and Congressional races, Levey said many more local races will be included on the November ballot. Among those will be Merced’s mayoral seat and three Merced City Council seats.

“Back to that point about voters turn out when things get them really excited, there will simply be more on the (November) ballot, and so there will be more things to excite different people to get out and vote,” Levey said. “So we’re certainly approaching (the November general election) like it will be at or above record turnout.”  

Where local results stand in Merced County

Merced County released its latest vote numbers at 5 p.m. March 15. As of now, there are only 817 votes left to count. Levey said the ballots that are left come from all over Merced County, and are not concentrated from any particular location.

Measure C, the half-cent sales tax that supports staffing at the City of Merced’s police and fire departments, will pass with 68.57% yes votes – well above 50% plus one threshold needed for it to pass.

In Merced County Supervisors District 1, Former sheriff’s sergeant Jim Pacheco is on track to defeat incumbent Rodrigo Espinosa, with 54.33% to 22.45% of the vote respectively. Pacheco needed 50% of the vote to avoid a November runoff.

Challengers in the District 1 race Maria Soto and Sonia Alshami trailed far behind.

In Merced County Supervisors District 2, incumbent Josh Pedrozo will defeat challenger Annissa Fragoso, 68.94 to 30.48% respectively.

In Merced County Supervisors District 4, incumbent Lloyd Pariera is on track for another term, with 61.70% of the vote over Dennis Brazil (19.29%) and Jim Soria (18.66%).

Monika Saini-Donabed is on track to be elected as Merced County Superior Court judge, with 63.30% of votes over Carlos Dammeier (20.32%) and Regina Sonia Lea-Adams (16.38%).

In Congressional District 13, incumbent Duarte will have a November rematch with Gray. They have 55% to 45% respectively in the primary.

When will the vote count be official?

Levey said he tentatively expects to certify Merced County’s final election results on Friday, March 29. California gives registrars like Levey 30 days after the election to certify the vote.

“Historically it usually hasn’t taken the full 30 days,” Levey said. 

In the meantime, Levey and his staff will be counting final votes that arrived at his office at the deadline. Mail-in votes had to be postmarked by March 5 and arrive at the Registrar of Voters Office by 5 p.m. March 12. 

Levey and his staff are also confirming provisional votes or others that require some investigation. “If there are no signatures on envelopes, we reach out to voters and then they can reach back out to us to secure their signature,” he said.

Victor A. Patton is editor-in-chief of The Merced FOCUS, a nonprofit newsroom based in Merced.

Last minute 2024 primary voter guide: What Merced County residents should know

CVJC l MAR 5, 2024

Election Day is today in Merced County. Whether you still haven’t registered or want to know where to drop off your ballot, the Merced County Registrar of Voters can help. 

The Registrar of Voters has set up a total of 14 voting centers throughout the county to assist Merced County residents, along with multiple ballot dropoff locations. 

Voting centers are open 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. Tuesday. https://www.countyofmerced.com/DocumentCenter/View/37008/Vote-Center-and-Drop-Box

The services offered at voting centers include 1). Language services 2). Ballot replacement 3). Conditional ballots. 4).  Accessible voting. 

Same day voting information

Although the voter registration deadline has passed, those who wish to vote can still fill out a conditional ballot at any of the 14 voting centers – a process under California law also known as same day voter registration (https://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/voter-registration/same-day-reg).

Do you still need to send or drop off a vote-by-mail ballot? All vote-by-mail ballots must be postmarked by Tuesday and received by the Registrar of Voters by 5 p.m. March 12. Vote by mail ballots can be dropped off at voting centers until 8 p.m. Tuesday.

Measure C, Board of Supervisors on the ballot

One of the top local issues being watched in the 2024 Merced County primary election this year is Measure C, a half-cent public safety tax that benefits the City of Merced’s police and fire departments. Measure C was first approved in 2006 with a 20-year lifespan. Without an extension, it will sunset in 2026. 

In order to pass, Measure C must receive a simple majority of votes in favor of renewal.

The 2024 Merced County primary election ballot includes candidates for the U.S. Congress, the California Legislature, Merced Superior Court judges, Merced County Board of Supervisors and local ballot initiatives.

Races for federal and state offices, including Congress and the California Legislature, will appear on the March primary ballot, but won’t be settled until the November election.

Merced County supervisor races that have only two candidates may be decided Tuesday. If no candidate receives 50% plus one of the votes. the top two vote getters will continue to a runoff election in November.

Proposition 1 and homelessness

Another issue being closely watched is Proposition 1, which would help shape the state’s policy toward fighting homelessness and providing mental health for years to come. 

Supporters have said it will address the “sickest of the sick” among the state’s unhoused population, and help ease the state’s homeless problem by focusing on getting those people off the streets, as well as helping homeless veterans. 

Opponents have said it will transfer money away from services that keep people out of homelessness in the first place, thus possibly exacerbating the state’s problems. They also say it’s an inefficient way to address the root causes of homelessness in California. 

Merced County has grappled with the issue of homelessness for years. The number of homeless residents here decreased by 8.30% since 2022, from 855 people to 784 in 2023, according to data from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development.

For more information about voting in Merced County, visit the Registrar of Voters website or call (209) 385-7434

Merced County’s March election is approaching. Who’s running and what voters need to know

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By BRIANNA VACCARI

brianna@cvlocaljournalism.org

January 2, 2024

MERCED (CVJC) – Merced County’s new registrar of voters is gearing up for his first major election in March, where voters will cast ballots on federal, state and local races plus ballot measures.

The California Secretary of State last week certified the candidate lists for the March 2024 primary election, kicking off the election season.

The March 5 primary will mark the first major election administered by Melvin Levey. It’s also the first since the 2022 election when some Merced County voters received incorrect ballots.

The ballot error stemmed from a mapping issue related to redistricting. The Merced County Grand Jury investigated the issue, and Merced County officials paid for an independent investigation. The investigations found the error did not affect the outcome of the election.

Levey was appointed registrar of voters in January, after the error occurred under then-registrar Darlene Ingersoll. Levey is the son of Barbara Levey, who held the office for many years prior to Ingersoll.

Since his appointment, Levey has worked to restore trust in the county elections office by meeting with community groups and sharing updates about the training and systems in the elections office.

Levey gave a presentation to the Merced City Council last month reviewing the corrective measures in place at the county elections office to reduce the chance for errors and reinforce the county’s election integrity.

“Trust in our elections is the most important thing that I can work to build every day,” he told CVJC in a phone interview. 

He said he understands voters may be wary after a combination of the 2022 mistake, national attention on election integrity and the spread of misinformation.

“Our goal throughout this whole process is to be transparent, to be fair, to follow the laws,” he said. “The big thing that I would tell folks is if they have questions, if they have concerns, they can always reach out to our office.”

The March 5 election will be an important one for Merced County voters, who will weigh candidates for U.S. Congress, the California Legislature, Merced Superior Court judges, Merced County supervisors and a number of local ballot initiatives.

More than 120,000 Merced County residents are registered to vote, Levey said. Registered Democrats make up the majority, at over 54,000, followed by Republicans at over 36,000. Nearly 28,000 Merced County voters are registered as no party preference.

Who and what’s on the ballot?

The big-ticket items on this ballot will mostly be regional races and local ballot measures. Local city council races, for example, will occur during the general election in November.

Races for federal and state offices, such as Congress and the California Legislature, will appear both on the March primary ballot and the November general election, but won’t be settled until the November election, Levey said.

Merced County supervisor races that have only two candidates may be decided in March, Levey said. If no candidate receives 50% plus one of the votes, the top two vote getters will continue to a runoff election in November.

Congressional District 13

For their representative in Congress, Merced County voters will decide a rematch between first-term Rep. John Duarte, R-Modesto, and former Democrat Assemblymember Adam Gray.

It’s one of the most hotly-contested congressional seats in California, if not the nation. In 2022, Duarte beat Gray by a mere 564 votes, or less than half a percentage point, out of over 133,000 ballots cast. 

It was the first race in the newly-drawn district, which stretches across five counties, including San Joaquin, Stanislaus, Merced, Madera and Fresno.

Merced County is the only county fully in the district and makes up more than one-third of the registered voters within the district boundaries.

California Legislature

In state Assembly District 27, first-term Democrat and incumbent Esmeralda Soria has one challenger, Joanna Garcia Rose, of Atwater. Rose’s biography on her campaign website says she has worked as a tax auditor for the California Employment Development Department, with experience in agriculture and running a water drilling business. 

The district stretches from Livingston into Fresno and includes several cities and communities on the west side of the I-5 highway.

Another rematch will take place in the race for Assembly District 22. Republican Juan Alanis in 2022 defeated Democrat Jessica Self by 16 percentage points. Self is again challenging Alanis for the seat to represent the district, which includes northern portions of Merced County and the southern portion of Stanislaus County.

Merced County Supervisor District 1

Merced County Supervisor Rodrigo Espinosa is running for re-election and has three challengers: Sonia Fernanda Alshami, Maria Soto and Jim Pacheco.

Fernanda Alshami is a business owner and previously ran for Merced City Council. Soto is an educator and currently sits on the Livingston City Council. Pacheco is a retired sheriff’s deputy who currently works as a bailiff.

District 1 includes the communities of Planada, El Nido, Livingston, Santa Nella and Le Grand.

Merced County Supervisor District 2

Incumbent Josh Pedrozo is running for re-election against one challenger, Annissa L. Fragoso, an insurance agent who serves as the president of the Merced County Hispanic Chamber of Commerce. 

District 2 includes much of the western region of the City of Merced, UC Merced and adjacent communities. 

Merced County Supervisor District 4

Lloyd Pareira, who currently represents District 4, is running for re-election and has two challengers, Dennis J. Brazil and Jim Soria.

Brazil currently sits on the Gustine City Council and previously served as mayor of Gustine.

Soria previously served as mayor of Livingston and sat on the city council. He also ran for sheriff in 2014.

District 4 borders both Stanislaus and Mariposa counties and includes the city of Gustine and the unincorporated communities of Delhi, Hilmar, Winton and Snelling.

Merced County Superior Court Judge

Three candidates are running to fill a vacancy for Merced Superior Court judge. They are Regina Sonja Lea Adams, Carlos Dammeier and Monika Saini-Donabed.

Ballot measures

Measure C – City of Merced

Voters living in the Merced city limits will vote whether to renew Measure C, a 20-year, half-cent tax to provide $8 million in annual funding for city police officers, firefighters and road improvements. 

The ballot question asks voters to approve converting Measure C to a special tax, which would limit the use of funding for only its stated purpose, necessitate annual audits and citizen oversight. 

Measure E – Delhi Unified School District

Voters living in the unincorporated community of Delhi will cast ballots on Measure E, deciding whether to allow the Delhi Unified School District to issue $17 million in bonds for facilities updates. The bonds would generate about $990,000 annually. Owners of taxable property would pay about $60 per $100,000 assessed value.

The bonds will fund replacing HVAC systems; renovating safety and security operations, classrooms, restrooms and school facilities. None of the money will be used for salaries, and the spending would be subject to annual audits and citizen oversight.

Measure G – City of Los Banos

Shall the offices of city clerk and city treasurer be appointive? 

Measure H – City of Los Banos

Shall the term of office of mayor be four years? A “no” vote would retain the current two-year term.

What voters can expect

The last day to register to vote is Feb. 20. Anyone who wishes to register to vote and cast a ballot after can do so up to Election Day, but they will use a conditional ballot.

Merced County voters will receive their ballots in the mail after Feb. 5 when the registrar’s office mails them. Ballots can be returned to the registrar’s office via mail, by dropping their sealed and signed ballot to an official drop box or turning in their ballot on Election Day. 

Three voting assistance centers will open Feb. 24, or 10 days before the election, from 8 a.m. to 4 p.m. All 14 voting centers will be open March 2 before the election, and any Merced County voter can go to any voting center.

A list of voting assistance centers with dates and times open will be listed in the Merced County voter guide and on the elections website, www.mercedelections.org.

On Election Day, March 5, voting centers will be open from 7 a.m. to 8 p.m.

All vote-by-mail ballots must be postmarked by March 5 and received by 5 p.m. March 12. Vote by mail ballots can be dropped off at voting centers as well up until 8 p.m. on Election Day.

Brianna Vaccari is the governmental accountability/watchdog reporter for the Central Valley Journalism Collaborative, a nonprofit newsroom based in Merced.

Merced voters to decide whether to extend public safety tax. Issue qualifies for March ballot

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By VICTOR PATTON 

victor@cvlocaljournalism.org

September 18, 2023

The future of Measure C, a half-cent public safety tax that primarily benefits Merced’s police and fire departments, will be in voters’ hands in 2024. 

Supporters of the measure have collected ample signatures to ask Merced voters in March whether the tax should be extended for another 20 years. 

A Friday afternoon email from Merced County Registrar of Voters Melvin Levey to Merced city officials confirmed Measure C’s supporters did successfully reach the threshold of 3,988 valid signatures to put the issue on the March ballot. 

Without an extension, the measure would sunset in 2026. It first was approved in 2006 with a 20-year lifespan. 

A group of citizens called “The Committee for a Safer Merced” led by former Merced Mayor Mike Murphy, spearheaded a signature-gathering campaign in hopes of renewing the tax.

Murphy’s group formed after the Merced City Council last year blocked the tax renewal from appearing on the November 2022 ballot. “We know the overwhelming majority (of voters) in Merced want a fully-funded police department and fire department,” Murphy told CVJC.

Since 2006, Measure C has generated $105 million. It’s expected to generate $8.8 million this fiscal year. Without the half-cent tax, city officials estimate Merced could face a $7 million annual budget shortfall and lose stable funding for the police and fire departments.

In order to pass, Measure C must receive a simple majority of votes in favor of renewal.

The committee received strong backing from the city’s police and fire unions, along with many in the business community, Murphy said.

Murphy expects the committee will grow between now and March to include more volunteers who will continue spreading the word about Measure C. “This is going to be a full campaign to make sure residents understand the choices before them in March,” he said. 

The only difference between the current iteration of Measure C versus the 2024 ballot version is the latest measure will be a special tax, meaning it can only be used for public safety and some road maintenance. 

The current version of the measure is a general tax, meaning it can be used for any city expenditure. 

Murphy said his group looked at how money was generally allocated under Measure C since its passage, and 95% went to public safety and 5% went to roads. He expects those percentages would remain the same if Measure C is extended. 

RELATED STORY: Supporters of Merced’s Public Safety Tax submit signatures to put Measure C before voters in March 2024

Victor Patton is the engagement editor for the Central Valley Journalism Collaborative, a nonprofit newsroom based in Merced. Sign up for CVJC’s free Substack list  and follow CVJC on Facebook.
This story was published in partnership with the Central Valley Journalism Collaborative, a nonprofit and nonpartisan community newsroom. To get regular coverage from the CVJC, sign up for CVJC’s free Substack list https://cvjc.substack.com/and follow CVJC on Facebook.